The UK government is expected to lower its mandated electric vehicle sales targets this week, with the 2030 goal reportedly set to fall from 80% to 60% of new car sales. Transport Secretary Louise Haigh is due to set out the revised Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate in the coming days, according to reports from The Guardian and the BBC cited by Autocar.
The move follows sustained pressure from an industry whose electric sales have not kept pace with the quotas. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) forecasts that just 27.2% of cars sold across the whole of this year will be electric, against a mandated 33% EV mix for 2026.
What is reportedly changing
Government insiders are said to suggest the 2030 EV sales target could be reduced from 80% to 60%, with car makers retaining access to various flexibilities within the mandate's mechanisms until 2034. Under the existing framework, manufacturers must hit annually increasing EV sales mix targets on the way to an 80% share by 2030, with a ban on new combustion-engined car sales following in 2035.
The Guardian reports that Haigh will finalise the plan after a crunch meeting on Wednesday intended to settle the dispute between the transport, energy and business departments. The changes are expected to be revealed this week.
Why the targets are being revisited
The existing quotas have proven out of step with organic consumer demand, forcing many manufacturers to heavily subsidise their electric cars at significant cost, or to pay penalties for non-compliance. The gap between mandate and market is forecast to widen: the SMMT expects EV sales to reach 32% next year against a 38% target, and to fall 14.5 percentage points behind the 52% target in 2028.
Electric car uptake has nonetheless grown. More than 500,000 were sold from January to November, a 30% year-on-year increase, driven in part by large rises in petrol and diesel costs and by manufacturers expanding their portfolios downwards into more affordable EVs.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes framed the problem as one of demand rather than supply. Almost one in three new cars registered in October was electric, he said, describing it as great progress achieved at enormous cost, with industry and government spending billions to help drivers switch. He warned that support cannot be sustained indefinitely while the gap to mandated targets is set to more than double by 2028, just as a new EV-only tax is introduced. Higher targets may force supply, he said, but they do not create demand, and the review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately.
Relaxing the mandate will relieve pressure on manufacturers, but it weakens a central plank of the UK's decarbonisation policy. Had the targets been kept and met, the ZEV mandate was expected to deliver 14% of the government's targeted CO2 reductions between 2028 and 2032. That is the trade-off behind the review: a slower, more market-aligned transition in exchange for less of the emissions saving the policy was designed to lock in.
What is still unconfirmed
The 60% figure and the extension of mandate flexibilities to 2034 rest on briefings to The Guardian and the BBC rather than a published government document, so the final numbers could differ when Haigh sets out the plan. The timing of the announcement, described as due this week, has not been formally confirmed either.
